JarJar Nixon's Blues Kitchen

From the left:

www.TomPaine.com


From the right:

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/ollienorth/archive.shtml

XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX WED JUNE 30, 2004 11:18:25 ET XXXXX

VICE PRESIDENT HILLARY; SPECULATION INTENSIFIES IN WASHINGTON

Official Washington and the entire press corps will be rocked when Hillary Rodham Clinton is picked as Kerry's VP and a massive love fest will begin!

So predicts a top D.C. insider, who spoke to the DRUDGE REPORT on condition he not be named.

Full report at www.drudgereport.com

Full story at http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB108859328199551408,00.html?mod=gadgets%5Fprimary%5Fhs%5Flt



TOKYO -- Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. unveiled a large-capacity optical-disc recorder that can record 4½ hours of digital high-definition TV programs on a single disc using Blu-ray technology -- one of two rival next-generation DVD formats.

The product is the first DVD recorder to be compatible with "dual-layer" Blu-ray discs, which have a recording capacity of 50 gigabytes, about 10 times as much as that of current DVDs, according to Matsushita, which makes the Panasonic brand of audiovisual products.

From Alan Abelson's latest column in Barron's (excerpts only, since this is from a subscriber-only web site)


READING THE ENTRAILS OF ANIMALS may not be an infallible method of divining the future....But, for all that it's undeniably primitive and ancient, as a guide to coming events the entrails approach is at least as reliable as most of the contemporary tools of prophecy, and the shamans who employed it were as often on target as are any of the present-day soothsayers and their vaunted computer models....

Pierre Lussier, proprietor of the Investment Information Provider, who sent to us a neat study he did starkly entitled, "Street's Track Record."

Using a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia of a variegated mix of duly anointed economists (they nest in brokerage houses, banks, universities, private firms and consulting outfits), along with securities analysts' earnings forecasts, Pierre has gone back to 1982 and traced the accuracy -- or lack of it -- of predictions one and two years out on a clutch of economic variables and corporate profits.

What he found, not surprisingly, is that the further out the forecast, the greater the forecasting error. The clairvoyants were relatively -- and we stress relatively -- successful predicting housing starts, unemployment and long-term interest rates. They were pretty awful on inflation and GDP. In a rare nice-guy mood, we would rate the analysts' projections on profits as middling.

....On housing, the average gap between what the wannabe Nostradamuses said would happen and what really happened was 5% in one-year forecasts, 11% in two-year predictions. On unemployment, the seers averaged a 5% miss on one-year, and 12% on two-year, forecasts. On long-term interest rates, they were off by 10% in their expectations a year hence and 17% in two-year predictions. Their average error guessing short-term interest rates was 14% when they looked ahead one year, which ballooned to 47%, when they attempted to foretell rates two years out.

On inflation, the professional economists were off 29% when reckoning the rate a year in the future; they missed by 41% trying to gauge what the rate would be two years out. They were wildly off the mark in their guesses of nominal GDP: by 102% one year ahead and 109% two years away.

....Their forecasts of operating earnings a year ahead went awry by 14%; when they pushed their luck and tried to see two years out, they missed, on average, by 25%.

What's the moral? Well, if you're a forecaster, never look back and keep forecasting. And if you're a civilian, at the very first whiff of a forecast, reach for a grain of salt; better yet, go buy a Ouija board of your very own.

On the one hand, this story may seem funny but, upon further reflection, it has some odd 'Eraserhead' nuances to it. It freaked me out more than made my laugh.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3844441.stm

From my friend Tom, who just made a truly original purchase:


OK, I know, not all of you are as excited as I am
about owning an original, fully restored, 45-year old,
French, motorized bicycle. But anyways, here are 2
pictures of my latest pride and joy, my Mobylette
AV44.

OK, I know, not all of you are as excited as I am
about owning an original, fully restored, 45-year old,
French, motorized bicycle. But anyways, [you can email me for]e 2 pictures of my latest pride and joy, my Mobylette
AV44.

It has a 50cc, two-stroke engine that makes a
distinctive rattling, firecracker-like sound. One
speed, automatic. The top speed is about 55-60
km/hour, roughly 35 miles/hour. And it handles like a
dream.

ALL kinds of fellow commuters have been STARING at it
since I've been driving it around since Wednesday.
Old, not-so-old, young, very young, male, female,
people driving $7,000 Honda's (the average person
makes $125 a month) have been staring and asking
questions. Some of the younger admirers think that it
is a brand-new kind of vehicle, just out in the
market. The older gentlemen particularly like it
because it reminds them of their younger days.

You can email Tom for a photo of his baby at
iamthomastuan@yahoo.com

A message from M. out on the West Coast:



Thanks to JarJarNixon for pointing me to Ken Burn's blueblooded commencement address at Yale. It was worth savoring, and the wonderful Elizabeth Cady Stanton quote was new to me. At the same time, Ken Burns has always been long on sentiment, short on insight as a historian, and maybe just a mite tendentious. So read it with cognac and savor, but keep this antidote in mind -- Bob Dylan's (now Dr. Dylan, having just received an honorary doctorate from Oxford) response to an honorary degree from Princeton in 1970, in "Day of the Locusts":

"I put down my robe, picked up my diploma,
Took hold of my sweetheart and away we did drive,
Straight for the hills, the black hills of Dakota,
Sure was glad to get out of there alive."

Damn straight, Ken, a little skepticism is a good thing. Thanks.

M.

A note on the Oxford degree: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040624/en_afp/afplifestyle_britain_us_040624171358

This story is a little beyond bizarre. Having been brainwashed by the Onion (www.TheOnion.com), it's hard to see something like this as real, but maybe it is:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39145

...and if it is real, it shows that there is an extremely different perception out there of the War On Terroism.

(Thanks to my friend John in 'Bama for this one.)

My family is spread out on three continents for the next couple of weeks. Cal left this morn for summer camp in the Alps; it's his first solo trans-oceanic flight, but the truth is that normally he takes care of me when the two of us are flying, not vice-versa.

You can send him an email at CalvinOgburn@hotmail.com. If he's got time in-between shaving cream&toothpaste fights, wandering through big old castles and wargaming with Austrian and Saudi friends, he may even reply. (Last summer he was having so much fun I got zero mail from him, so if you get something u will be luckier than I!)

I have one very perceptive comment on the Ken Burns commencement address (which I hope to post soon). Any other thoughts? With your permission I'll post what you send me.

Thanks, Marie, for this one:

http://www.yale.edu/opa/campus/2004_commencement/class_day.html

Ken Burns Yale commencement speech. Read it slowly after dinner, perhaps with a coffee or a cognac at your side.

My good friend Vo Dac Khoi is in the States and having the time of his life. www.vodaco.blogspot.com

I sent this message to JarJar's kitchen on Sunday but I guess I was so sick I mis-sent it:


Have been off the blog for the past few days because I have been under the weather. I feel like there is a massive green-horned bacteria sitting on my chest. Fortunately, it's the weekend, so I have been doing nothing but resting, watching CNN and reading Steve Coll's book, Ghost Wars, an excellent review of foreign involvement in Afghanistan over the past two decades. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A55082-2004Feb19¬Found=true

The fabulous Hue International Festival is underway in the ancient imperial capital, about a two hours' plane flight from Saigon. www.HueFestival.com I'm stuck down here in the city, but two folks from my office are up there enjoying Vietnamese traditional and pop music, plus acts from France, Australia and the U.S. The next one is in 2006, so start planning now to attend!

When I was back in the States I visited Steve Pepper, who works in the Washington bureau for one of the major TV networks. He showed me an audio/video mixing console that was less than ten years old, had cost more than a million bucks...and already was obsolete. I bought my Palm less than two years ago but already its updated cousins have three times the computing power and a half-dozen new features. Google is coming out with 1 gigabyte email boxes, Yahoo has just announced free 20 megabyte accounts to compete--and my tiny Hotmail account is now the Model T Ford of emails. Nowadays I dread newness just as much as I welcome it.

How do I cope with all this change? By keeping other things hopelessly long--I still use my manual Nikon and wear suits from the 1980s.

My office email is in transition, so I can be reached at staticvoid@hotmail.com for the time being.

My former investment banking colleague David suggests we check out Arianna Huffington's website at www.fanaticsandfools.org.

I flew coach on the way back. Fourteen hours in coach from DC to Tokyo, then six more hours of coach from Tokyo to here. The only good thing is that I was so tired by the time I got home I slept right past my traditional jet lag waking hour--2am.

And it is rainy season back here, so it is cool (mid-80s), the streets are clean, and the feeling of renewal is everywhere.

From my friend professor friend, M., out on the West Coast of the U.S.:

Re: Stale old Beastie Boys. Wait long enough, and they'll become "classic." One of the pleasurable discoveries of my long life is that young people haven't been as stupid as we were, not trusting anyone over thirty -- and have recovered musicians who performed so long ago that we might have scorned them if in the same position (unless they were black and played the blues, or maybe Jimmy Rogers or Bill Monroe).

They're still, especially the younger ones, keenly aware when something is so five minutes ago, but they also listen to whatever strikes them as good music. And they're much more flexible and inclusive when they stake out identity by the music to which they listen. My students who listen to Modest Mouse and Nelly and, I dunno, Diana Krall, also listen to Tony Bennett and Duke Ellington -- and one of them told me that after Johnny Cash died he and some friends stayed up all night listening to Johnny Cash recordings to pay homage (I hope they downloaded the CDs illegally, otherwise this is expansive but with these kids a little pasty).

I do think, however, that the Kingston Trio have disappeared from just about every soundscape in America except my older sister's record collection.

____

Adding to the somber tone of this week comes news that one of the greatest American singers of the Twentieth Century, Mr. Ray Charles, has died.  Check out today's www.nytimes.com

I am heading back to Asia this weekend and probably will not have time in between to write any long blogs. It has been a momentous four weeks, though, with the 60th anniversary of World War II and now the passing of President Reagan. I am glad that my mom came through the first phase of her eye surgery OK (although it is taking her a longer time to recover her vision than most people--perhaps because of her age). I was also happy to hear that Thu received an A in a Federal Income Taxation class in her Master's program at UMUC (www.umuc.edu), and that Cal received a black belt in his martial arts program. Four-year old Calista is snapping outfits for her Barbie collection whenever we go shopping. My two favorite purchases this vacation have been Kobbe's New Book of Opera (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Earl%20Harewood/002-8946264-8626457) and "White Blood Cells" by the White Stripes (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-form/002-8946264-8626457).

And the best new thing I learned about while back here has been satellite radio. The rental car I had was wired for XM radio, which has over 150 channels and every American music type you can conceive of (wait, no all-polka channel). http://www.xmradio.com/index.jsp Some of my previously unheard favorites include a band called Pedro the Lion and Loren Green's French version of a song called "Ringo."

OK, will blog again from Back Over There, about next Tuesday or so.

www.las.ch    This will be Cal's second year at Leysin American School's summer camp in the breathtaking Swiss alps.  This year he is enrolled in the theater and creative writing courses. 

Started a week-long leadership course at my office's training institute out in Arlington, Virginia.  Probably the highlight was hearing a story related on video by General Colin Powell:  when a janitor in the Empire State Building--a guy handling the garbage in the -basement--was asked what his job was, he replied, "My job is making this building clean and attractive for all of the thousands of visitors who come here every day."  In other words, even though he had the least glamorous job on the block, he was connected to the mission of his organization.  He had a pride in his work and a commitment to his employer and his customers that made his daily job tasks meaningful and personally enriching.  Some of the other, prolonged sessions on management theory did not really stick (in the Malcolm Gladwell 'Tipping Point' sense), but that story will stay with me for quite a while.

My son--just arrived here yesterday for summer vacation--informed me today that 1980s-1990s rap-rock pioneers the Beastie Boys are "kind of plain" and "not true MCs."  No further comment.

Went down to the Club at 14th and F Streets last night for Mexican food and Corona. The complimentary all-you-can eat taco bar was even more frezied than usual because the Jack Daniels lady was pouring free shorts of their new single-barrel whiskey. Amidst the guacamole dips and shouts of joy a voice called out, "It can't be. Is that a face from the past?" And it was Bill R., one of a handful of Washingtonians who knew and cared about Afghanistan before 9/11, and who knows most of the major languages spoken there. An Ivy League PhD as well as a lifelong government servant, we need to clone Bill R. or find thousands of other likewise dedicated people who can advise the government and inform the public on how knowing 'exotic' locales is important and of concern to everyone.

Went to Gettysburg today. Every time I go there it feels so macabre driving around the pristine wheat fields and up to hills and into the silent forests, and then thinking about the incredible bloodshed that took place there over three days in July 1863. The Lutheran Seminary, for example, served as a makeshift hospital during the battle, with 'surgeons' forced to pile amputated arms and legs like split logs. The battle was the high water mark for the Confederacy; from that point on the South could only attempt to wage a two-year long, debilitating defensive war against the North.

http://www.nps.gov/gett/

Back here in the States, this is the summer of Shrek (just Google for Shrek 2 if you have not heard of this film). On the one hand, it's great: Callie and I have seen it twice, we listen to the soundtrack (catch that Nick Cave song) in the car all the time, and one of us bought a tiny stuffed Donkey (the Eddie Murphy character). The only sad thing is that computer-generated kids' movies are so good now that old-style hand-drawn cartoons are on their way out. For example, look at the dismal box office receipts for Treasure Planet (an old-style cartoon), or ask the typical kid which style they prefer nowadays, and you will see how CG cartoons are slowly killing off the style several generations of people grew up with. I suppose a decade or so from now Cal or Callie will be writing about the end of 'old-style' CG and the advent of a new holographic cartoon, and they may well be lamenting the disappearance of human actors from most movies. Twenty or thirty years from now, Bugs and Mickey may actually be back, but they will nearly be alive as they fly off the screen, sit down next to you and eat your popcorn.

Among the many good experiences I have had while on this visit to the U.S. was the one that happened yesterday. I was glancing at the new "Cat in the Hat" DVD in a warehouse store when Glenn and Helen tapped me on the shoulder. They are old high school friends whom I last saw two decades ago. They had a brief high school relationship and, after two decades, they coincidentally re-met last year, and now they are engaged. Their eyes have gathered a few wrinkles around them and their hair is a bit thinner (like mine), but Glenn and Helen have a romantic spark in their faces that looks no less than it did when they were in school together in the 1970s. They invited me and Callie up to their house and on their boat, and I hope I can take them up on the offer before I leave. (They allowed me to use their names for this posting.)