JarJar Nixon's Blues Kitchen

http://www.thanhniennews.com/business/?catid=2&newsid=49065

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said Vietnam needed to bide its time while
'the bigger economies get their act together'
Paul Krugman's advice for Vietnam: don't lose sight of financial
regulation as private business takes off and the "invisible hand" of
the market grows stronger.

The Nobel Prize-winning economist said strict regulation of the
financial sector and government safety nets would be key to greasing
the wheels of Vietnam's transition to a market-based economy.
Speaking at a seminar in Ho Chi Minh City Thursday, The New York Times
columnist and Professor at Princeton University said the global
economic crisis was "stabilizing" but that there were no clear signs o
a full recovery.

"Things are getting worse, but they're getting worse more slowly," he
said, citing less rapid US job losses and a slowdown in the fall of
industrial production and exports in key economies.
"I don't think we've hit bottom, but the bottom is not too much
further below us," he said. "My big concern is that we don't hit the
bottom and bounce, we hit the bottom and stay there. It's not obvious
where recovery comes from."

He said there was not much Vietnam could do to help itself recover
other than to stay smart, hope and wait.

Shadow banking
Krugman spoke at length of how the deregulation of the US financial
sector allowed the shadow banking system to set off the financial
crises that transformed into a global economic recession.
Institutions that provide the services of banks without banking
regulation, including but not limited to hedge funds, money funds and
investment banks, have become notorious for their role in the
meltdown.

This system of institutions, known as the shadow banking sector, held
trillions of dollars in the US by 2007. With so much money, the
vulnerable and unregulated system in which investments are risky and
unprotected, became an integral part of US and global finance.
Krugman blamed deregulation that began in the Reagan-Thatcher era for
the development.

"We had a whole set of precautionary measures coming out of the great
depression that were designed to prevent a recurrence of the banking
crisis."

Then the world watched in dismay as the banking crisis of 2008 spawned
global panic.

"We were persuaded after about 1980 that we should have the same kind
of free market principles for finance that we had for wheat or airline
services," said Krugman. "It turned out that our grandfathers were
right and we were wrong."

The Nobel laureate stood by one of his trademark lines about talking
to economists:

"Don't trust anyone under 50," he said, explaining that anyone brought
up in the new school of economics had not been taught the lessons our
grandfathers learned.

He went on to repeat another one of his mantras: "anything that does
what a bank does, anything that has to be rescued in crises the way
banks are, should be regulated like a bank."

He said the government officials who oversaw this deregulation, not
just bankers, have a lot to answer for.

"They liberalized, they deregulated, even as the banking sector was
going crazy… in the US, this is bipartisan. The Clinton administration
gave the bankers a lot of what they wanted, the Bush administration
even more."

Krugman told the mostly-Vietnamese audience to not let the same thing
happen here. "If you let a deregulated financial system run wild, it
will do very bad things to your economy."
Slap in the face

In discussing Vietnam's situation, Krugman also warned against some of
the market's more exotic trappings.

Asked about whether Vietnam should embrace derivatives, he was clear:
"Don't touch them."

He was skeptical of financial innovation in general. Most innovations
– other than ATMs and overdraft protection – were geared toward
helping institutions evade regulation, he said.

Turning back to his rules for the financial sector, he suggested that
banks be restricted from operating out of their main line of business.
He said any deregulation "needs to be done with great care because
you'll find that when banking system goes wrong it does a lot of
damage."

Now that damage has been done, he said the fate of highly
trade-dependent, small economies like Vietnam were tightly bound to
the world crisis, with their recovery linked directly to a real global
recovery.

So, what can Vietnam do toward that recovery?
"Not a lot under the circumstances," said Krugman. "Pray that the
bigger economies get their act together."

He said things would have to change in New York and London before they
changed in Vietnam.

Though Vietnam was not responsible for the crisis, Krugman said the
country was being "slapped in the face by the invisible hand."
Wryly, he said: "I miss that US$3 trillion that we spent on tax cuts
and the war," positing that if the US hadn't wasted the funds, the
crisis would be less severe.
Reported by Jon Dillingham

NO QUICK FIXES
Thanh Nien Daily spoke with leading economists, entrepreneurs and
journalists on the sidelines of a seminar presented by Nobel
Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman in Ho Chi Minh City Thursday.
Economist Pham Chi Lan

Many reliable international economic magazines are saying the crisis
has not hit bottom and nobody knows how large it is… for developing
countries like Vietnam, the crisis arrived later but will stay longer.
I personally think official predictions that Vietnam's economy will
recover by the end of this year are unrealistic. The Ministry of
Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs said 300,000-400,000 people have
lost their jobs, while trade associations have reported nearly
5,000,000. As the unemployment rate is a critical criterion in
assessing the crisis, transparent information is more essential than
ever.

Krugman's careful judgments can help governments and policy makers be
more objective. They should keep their eyes on the rough road ahead.
Vietnam's US$8 billion stimulus package accounts for about 10 percent
of its GDP. However, several representatives at the current National
Assembly session are questioning where this money came from and how it
will be used. Here, we [need] a clear target and transparent
supervision system for stimulus packages.

Gian Tu Trung, president of the PACE Institute of Directors

This crisis has changed our view of the future… This is a right time
for us all to reposition ourselves… I hope Paul Krugman's presentation
will bring a new perspective on all this. Understanding the aim of
your journey will definitely help you choose the best path to take to
get to the destination.

John Yeomans, director of Deloitte Consulting/ICS Pte Ltd.

In terms of the different economic systems around the world, you have
some that are more under control than others and some that are more
free. What we can learn from the seminar and recent history is that
there is no perfect system and so my view is we need to look at
different systems around the world and pick the best from each. So the
policy makers should adapt in making their policies to best suit their
situation.

Vu Thanh Tu Anh, director of research at the Fulbright Economics
Teaching Program

I have drawn two important things from the seminar: Firstly, the
government's role of ensuring sound regulations for the financial
system, especially for an economy like Vietnam's, is crucial.
Secondly, every country under any political system should have an
effective social security system, especially during the economic
crisis, as the poor are the most vulnerable to unemployment and other
consequences.

David Pilling, Asia editor of the Financial Times

The government's role in regulating the economy is crucial and
undeniable. However, let's take the example of China. If people's
creativity is allowed to flourish, it would usually create better
results. In this case, the government should ease regulations for the
private sector to fairly compete with the state-owned enterprises in
the economy.
Vietnam has allowed room for the private sector to develop and this
should be maintained in the future. However, this is not a case for
some to take undue advantage and commit corruption.
Reported by Vinh Bao

http://lubbockonline.com/stories/051809/loc_441444782.shtml

H. Ross Perot, the feisty billionaire who made waves as a U.S. presidential
candidate in the 1990s, will help a growing Texas Tech center celebrate a
milestone.
Perot to lead local center's celebration

By Marlena Hartz | AVALANCHE-JOURNAL

*Monday, May 18, 2009*
Story last updated at 5/18/2009 - 11:46 pm

H. Ross Perot, the feisty billionaire who made waves as a U.S. presidential
candidate in the 1990s, will help a growing Texas Tech center celebrate a
milestone.

Perot, 78, will be the keynote speaker at The Vietnam Center and Archive
20th Anniversary Ball in Lubbock later this month.

The native Texan ran for president as an independent in 1992 and 1996. His
role as an advocate of Vietnam veterans and war prisoners is less known, but
equally impressive, said Steve Maxner, the director of The Vietnam Center.

Perot was appointed in 1969 to a Nixon administration committee developed to
improve treatment of U.S. war prisoners. He continued to advocate on behalf
on POWs in Hanoi, Vietnam, until they were released at the end of the war in
1972.

"More recently, he's been spending a lot of time and effort - and probably
money - to help severely wounded soldiers (who fought) in Afghanistan and
Iraq," said James Reckner, the founding director of the center.

In the past two decades, Tech's Vietnam Center and Archive has moved beyond
its humble beginnings.

Reckner, a Vietnam veteran who is now retired, founded the center in 1989
after he spoke with 15 or so fellow veterans about how they could positively
cope with their war-time experiences. They met on the third floor of the
Tech library. The archive began when a Slaton mother donated a bundle of
letters her son wrote while he was at war.

The center is now the largest reserve of Vietnam-related materials outside
of Washington, D.C., with more than 20 million pages of documents. It has
formed student-exchange partnerships with Vietnamese universities, aided in
the search for still missing U.S. soldiers and drawn diplomats to Lubbock.

"It's helped us establish a wonderful relationship with the country of
Vietnam," said Tech President Guy Bailey.

"That center's a real jewel," he said.

Proceeds from the ball will be used to cover the center's expenses and
create scholarships, Maxner said.

MARSHALL CRENSHAW RETURNS WITH JAGGEDLAND

Songwriter Readies 429 Records Debut
Jaggedland In Stores June 2nd

April 2009 Santa Monica, CA :  Masterful singer/songwriter Marshall Crenshaw has signed with 429 Records and is gearing up for the release of his long-awaited album of new recordings, Jaggedland.  Crenshaw has penned and played on twelve sublime new tracks that shimmer and glow with the inimitable musical warmth and sly humor that the musician's musician is known for.  Touching on a variety of subjects both intimate and wide-ranging, Crenshaw sings of love, mortality, the state of the world and the human condition.  Recorded partly in his hometown of Dutchess County, New York and partly in Los Angeles, the artist collaborated with a hand-picked circle of producers and musicians.  Producer Stewart Lerman began the process by recording a few of the tracks in Crenshaw's home studio while Jerry Boys (Buena Vista Social Club) worked on the project with Crenshaw at Los Angeles' Sage and Sound studio.  Also in the mix were top-notch musicians drummer Jim Keltner (a player with notables such as The Beatles, Rolling Stones and Bob Dylan); bassist Sebastian Steinberg,  guitarists Greg Leisz  and Wayne Kramer (of MC5 fame); and legendary vibraphonist/percussionist Emil Richards (known for his stellar work on the Beach Boys' tour de force, Pet Sounds).  429 Records will release Jaggedland on June 2nd. 
The album title is a term that Crenshaw uses to describe the state of his brain and consciousness.  The 12 songs are musical observations of the multi-faceted range of human experience as seen the through the filter of the artist.  All of Crenshaw's talents are on vivid display on Jaggedland—his trademark melodicism, humor and emotional honesty shine through on the vibrant recording, as well as his prodigious guitar playing.  Pointed and incisive as ever, the album resonates with an energy and immediacy of a fine-tuned ensemble, often captured in a single take. 
Jaggedland track listing:

1. Right On Time
2. Passing Through
3. Someone Told Me
4. Stormy River
5. Gasoline Baby
6. Never Coming Down
7. Long Hard Road
8. Jaggedland
9. Sunday Blues
10. Just Snap Your Fingers
11. Eventually
12. Live And Learn

Jaggedland is a career-defining record from one of America's greatest songwriters and performers.  Says Crenshaw in a recent interview: "I worked with some of my heroes on this record.  We banged it out in three days.  The music is really nice and the songs are off the dial—the best ones I've done."
429 Records is a unit of the Savoy Label Group (SLG).  SLG is the North American unit of CME (Columbia Music Entertainment), the oldest music company in Japan.  The Savoy Label Group has evolved into a leading independent company consistently outperforming competitors in key music categories as monitored by Billboard Magazine. SLG is lead by Steve Vining and CME is headed by Chairman Strauss Zelnick, founder of Zelnick Media which owns interests in and manages an array of media companies.
www.429records.com Contact:
Kurt Nishimura
SILVERLAKE MEDIA
323/663-6303
kurtnishimura@earthlink.net

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http://www.thanhniennews.com/business/?catid=2&newsid=48592

*Vietnam's economic growth has probably begun accelerating, with the first
quarter likely to be the low point in the country's downturn, HSBC Holdings
Plc said.*

The economy expanded 3.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier,
the slowest pace of expansion on record.

A round of rate cuts by Vietnam's central bank, a government stimulus
program, a weaker currency and resilient personal consumption expenditure
are buoying the growth outlook, Prakriti Sofat, a Singapore-based economist
at HSBC, wrote in a note. The economy may grow 4.5 percent for the year,
compared with 6.2 percent in 2008, she said.

"The worst is behind us," wrote Sofat. Vietnam is facing a "slowdown, not a
recession," she said.

The State Bank of Vietnam has cut its benchmark interest rate to 7 percent
from 14 percent in October.

The central bank's moves to date represent a "massive monetary policy
easing," Sofat wrote. The easing is now "working its way through the
system," she said in the note.

A government subsidy on loans – part of a stimulus package that Prime
Minister Nguyen Tan Dung last month valued at US$8 billion – functions as a
de facto further easing of monetary policy, according to HSBC. The loan
subsidy program is creating a new "credit boom" in Vietnam, Citigroup Inc.
said last month.

*Exports holding up*

Exports may be receiving some boost from a 10 percent "nominal depreciation"
of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar over the last year, Sofat
wrote. Garment shipments have held up "reasonably well," in part due to a
focus on lower-end products that benefit during a period when shoppers'
incomes are being squeezed, she said in the note.

"We're into summer orders already, and things are holding up," said Jonathan
Pincus, an economist with the Vietnam Program at the Harvard Kennedy School
in Ho Chi Minh City, when asked about garment export performance this year.

Retail sales of goods and services in the country grew 21.5 percent in the
first four months, according to the General Statistics Office in Hanoi. The
"astounding" recent growth in retail sales in Vietnam "shows that
consumption remains very strong," HCMC-based fund manager Dragon Capital
said in a note dated April 29.

"Strong growth and asset price gains (including commodity prices) over the
last few years, even after taking into account the recent declines, mean
that the average Vietnamese person is much better off," Sofat wrote.

Vietnamese Prime Minister Dung said last month that gross domestic product
may increase as much as 5.5 percent for the full year, while the
International Monetary Fund foresees 3.3 percent growth.

Any positive figure is "an achievement when seen in the regional context,"
Sofat wrote.

Have been posting to my Twitter page, search for 'JarJarNixon'

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